Market analysis, product updates, and trading strategies from the Blockcircle team.
A leaderboard measures rank, not attention, and contracts leave it because they expired as often as because interest faded. Five corrections have to be applied before board tenure can support an entry timing rule.
Standard correlation assumes two assets move in the same instant. Lagged cross-correlation asks whether one front-runs the other, and how to tell a real lead from noise.
The budget cycle repeats every year on a schedule you can write down in advance, which turns defence filings from surprises into expected events. The catch is that the sector tile does not isolate defence at all.
The worst losses in regime trading cluster in the ambiguous middle where a trend is dying but a range has not formed yet. Here is how to detect the turn early and stay flat through the chop.
A six-timeframe momentum score reads one way in a clean trend and something completely different in a range. Here is how to tell when a low or flickering composite is telling you to stand aside.
Some knobs on a cloned strategy only change how the ride feels. Others re-select which trades exist, which means the backtest you liked stops describing the thing you are running.
Leadership rarely dies overnight. The old leader stalls while a challenger's RS climbs for weeks first. Here is how to read the slope and rank momentum so you rotate on the turn.
A Sharpe of 1.5 over a month and over five years are not the same claim. Here is the standard error math and a quick check for telling a real edge from a small-sample fluke.
A composite macro score tells you the cycle is decelerating but not why. A separate policy error component makes the cause attributable, and the hard part is keeping it from double counting the yield curve.
CAPM gives you a cost of equity for a Bitcoin treasury company, but the number swings wildly with your inputs. Here is how leverage inflates beta and where the estimate breaks.
The regime bars are separate gauges, not slices of one pie. Three of them read 75, 55 and 45 in the same capture, which is 175 points, and that arithmetic changes how you are meant to trade them.