Market analysis, product updates, and trading strategies from the Blockcircle team.
Contracts a year from resolution trade below fair probability because locked collateral earns nothing. Here is the hurdle rate math, and how yield-bearing collateral changes it.
Federal judges have to disclose what they own, and those holdings quietly predict recusals. Here is how to read the filings and turn them into a litigation watchlist.
Oil prices feed into inflation through direct and indirect channels, but the relationship is more nuanced than headlines suggest.
The ISM Purchasing Managers Index has one of the longest and most consistent track records as a leading indicator for the US economy and equity markets.
Most large transfer alerts carry no tradeable signal. Here is how to run your own event study on exchange inflows so you stop trading on anecdotes and screenshots.
What the academic papers actually show about congressional trading returns, from the Ziobrowski studies to post-STOCK Act data, and which subsets still carry a modest, tradeable edge.
Consumer credit growth reveals how households are funding their spending. When credit expands rapidly while incomes stagnate, the gap eventually closes.
The distinction between leading and lagging economic indicators is not arbitrary. It reflects the actual sequencing of economic activity.
A matching engine is just one program deciding whose order fills first. Here is how price-time priority works and why it fails you right when volatility spikes.
What you can genuinely get without paying for on-chain data: explorers, DefiLlama, Dune, the free slices of Glassnode and CryptoQuant, and whale feeds, plus the point where each one stops pulling its weight.
How to scale exposure inversely to realized volatility so your book runs at a constant risk level. A monthly rule set for crypto that de-risks before storms fully form, no forecasting required.