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Results
Every signal we published. Wins and losses.
All 148 Trade Alpha signals since 25 Mar 2026, including 115 from strategies we have since removed. Each one is sized at $1,000 and shown after trading costs. Updated every day.
$1,000 on every signal since 25 Mar needed up to $8,000 at once. Today that $8,000 is worth
$7,863
-$137 (-1.7%) after costs
The same $8,000 held over the same dates:BTC $9,618 (+20.2%)SPY $9,489 (+18.6%)QQQ $10,339 (+29.2%)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Period 25 Mar 2026 to 8 Oct 2026. As at 8 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC. US dollars. After costs: crypto 0.1% a side, stocks and ETFs half the bid-ask spread a side. Not annualised: the record is less than a year old.
Closed signals127since 25 Mar
Won after costs43.3%55 of 127
Return-1.7%on $8,000
Max drawdown-7.5%peak to trough
Open now6valued at the last close
Account value against holding the index
Signals, $1,000 each $7,863 -1.7%Start $8,000
127 closed43.3% won-1.7% return-7.5% max drawdown6 openfrom 25 Mar 2026BTC held: +20.2%, max drawdown -28.7%
The ledger
148 signals: 134 live, 14 adopted late. 133 counted. Listed but not counted: 6 voided, 2 private, 7 written after they had closed. Tap a row for its times, costs and proof.
| Asset | Side | Issued | Entry | Exit or value | After costs | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F MTE · F MTE 1day | Long | 1 Oct 2026 00:00 Live | 12.06 | 12.272 Oct | +1.66%+$16.58 | Closed |
V MTE · V MTE 1day | Long | 1 Oct 2026 00:00 Live | 359.33 | 359.852 Oct | +0.10%+$1.05 | Closed |
SOL MRE · Market Reversals (MRE) Alert | Long | 28 Sep 2026 03:30 Live | 115.00 | 120.78value 6 Oct | +4.82%+$48.21 | Open |
BAC MTE · BAC MTE 1day | Long | 23 Sep 2026 00:00 Live | 56.20 | 53.52value 7 Oct | -4.81%-$48.08 | Open |
EFV MTE · EFV MTE 1day | Long | 22 Sep 2026 00:10 Live | 81.50 | 80.1224 Sep | -1.73%-$17.33 | Closed |
NKE My Trade · Alpaca - Manual entry | Long | 17 Sep 2026 18:02 Live | 36.117 | 34.61value 6 Oct | -4.21%-$42.11 | Open |
EFV MTE · EFV MTE 1day | Long | 17 Sep 2026 00:02 Live | 81.18 | 80.8219 Sep | -0.48%-$4.83 | Closed |
SOL MRE · Market Reversals (MRE) Alert | Long | 15 Sep 2026 05:21 Live | 100.89 | 103.6218 Sep | +2.50%+$25.03 | Closed |
SOL MRE · Market Reversals (MRE) Alert | Long | 12 Sep 2026 19:38 Live | 101.43 | 103.4214 Sep | +1.76%+$17.60 | Closed |
F MTE · F MTE 1day | Long | 3 Sep 2026 00:46 Adopted late | 13.93 | 14.414 Sep | +3.37%+$33.74 | Voided |
BAC MTE · BAC MTE 1day | Long | 3 Sep 2026 00:46 Adopted late | 61.94 | 63.044 Sep | +1.74%+$17.36 | Voided |
BAC MTE · BAC MTE 1day | Long | 1 Sep 2026 00:02 Live | 61.94 | 62.603 Sep | +1.03%+$10.25 | Closed |
XAG MTE · XAG/USD MTE 4h · traded as SLV | Long | 28 Aug 2026 11:03 Live | 69.01 | 60.883value 7 Oct | -11.81%-$118.14 | Open |
F MTE · F MTE 1day | Long | 22 Aug 2026 06:46 Adopted late | 13.93 | 14.143 Sep | +1.44%+$14.36 | Closed |
XAG MTE · XAG/USD MTE 4h · traded as SLV | Long | 18 Aug 2026 07:58 Adopted late | 63.338 | 69.02221 Aug | +8.93%+$89.32 | Closed |
BK MTE · BK MTE 1day | Long | 5 Aug 2026 15:21 Adopted late | 158.74 | 162.6614 Sep | +2.43%+$24.29 | Closed |
F MTE · F MTE 1day | Short | 5 Aug 2026 15:21 Adopted late | 14.13 | 14.136 Aug | -0.07%-$0.71 | Closed |
XAG MTE · XAG/USD MTE 4h · traded as SLV | Long | 5 Aug 2026 15:21 Adopted late | 62.047 | 64.2747 Aug | +3.55%+$35.48 | Closed |
CRM MTE · CRM MTE 1day · removed | Short | 13 Jun 2026 00:00 Live | 165.89 | 224.56value 7 Oct | -35.41%-$354.14 | Open |
CRM MTE · CRM MTE 1day · removed | Short | 11 Jun 2026 00:00 Live | 170.92 | 166.4512 Jun | +2.58%+$25.76 | Closed |
BCH MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h · removed | Long | 5 Jun 2026 04:00 Live | 239.50 | 225.705 Jun | -5.96%-$59.56 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 5 Jun 2026 00:00 Live | 188.35 | 205.15value 7 Oct | +8.88%+$88.78 | Open |
CRM MTE · CRM MTE 1day · removed | Long | 4 Jun 2026 00:00 Live | 190.61 | 188.755 Jun | -1.02%-$10.16 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 3 Jun 2026 00:00 Live | 187.55 | 189.714 Jun | +1.11%+$11.11 | Closed |
CRM MTE · CRM MTE 1day · removed | Long | 2 Jun 2026 00:00 Live | 209.60 | 200.843 Jun | -4.22%-$42.19 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 30 May 2026 00:00 Live | 182.46 | 185.832 Jun | +1.81%+$18.07 | Closed |
CRM MTE · CRM MTE 1day · removed | Long | 29 May 2026 00:00 Live | 176.17 | 191.0230 May | +8.39%+$83.88 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 28 May 2026 00:00 Live | 182.40 | 183.0329 May | +0.31%+$3.05 | Closed |
0Y4G AOE · AOE Outperformer | Long | 27 May 2026 18:01 Live | 46.622 | 46.62227 May | -0.04%-$0.40 | Closed |
0Y10 AOE · AOE Outperformer | Long | 27 May 2026 18:00 Live | 146.82 | 146.8227 May | -0.04%-$0.40 | Closed |
ROCK Insider · Insider Alpha - Bosway William T (President and CEO) | Long | 27 May 2026 17:17 Live | 37.438 | 39.2227 May | +4.72%+$47.20 | Closed |
CRM MTE · CRM MTE 1day · removed | Long | 27 May 2026 00:01 Live | 179.08 | 177.5128 May | -0.92%-$9.17 | Closed |
BCH MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h · removed | Long | 26 May 2026 20:00 Live | 346.00 | 343.4027 May | -0.95%-$9.51 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 23 May 2026 00:00 Live | 191.43 | 184.7127 May | -3.55%-$35.50 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 21 May 2026 00:01 Live | 191.33 | 191.0122 May | -0.21%-$2.07 | Closed |
BCH MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h · removed | Long | 20 May 2026 04:00 Live | 370.00 | 370.4020 May | -0.09%-$0.92 | Closed |
BCH MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h · removed | Long | 19 May 2026 20:00 Live | 368.00 | 370.4020 May | +0.45%+$4.52 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 19 May 2026 00:00 Live | 196.12 | 197.2520 May | +0.54%+$5.36 | Closed |
CVX MTE · CVX MTE 1day · removed | Long | 17 May 2026 03:34 Adopted late | 183.99 | 191.0917 May | +3.82%+$38.18 | Not counted |
CRM MTE · CRM MTE 1day · removed | Short | 16 May 2026 14:32 Live | 173.51 | 179.4819 May | -3.48%-$34.81 | Closed |
F Long
MTE · F MTE 1day
+1.66%+$16.58
1 Oct 202612.06 to 12.27
LiveClosed
V Long
MTE · V MTE 1day
+0.10%+$1.05
1 Oct 2026359.33 to 359.85
LiveClosed
SOL Long
MRE · Market Reversals (MRE) Alert
+4.82%+$48.21
28 Sep 2026115.00 to 120.78 (value)
LiveOpen
BAC Long
MTE · BAC MTE 1day
-4.81%-$48.08
23 Sep 202656.20 to 53.52 (value)
LiveOpen
EFV Long
MTE · EFV MTE 1day
-1.73%-$17.33
22 Sep 202681.50 to 80.12
LiveClosed
NKE Long
My Trade · Alpaca - Manual entry
-4.21%-$42.11
17 Sep 202636.117 to 34.61 (value)
LiveOpen
EFV Long
MTE · EFV MTE 1day
-0.48%-$4.83
17 Sep 202681.18 to 80.82
LiveClosed
SOL Long
MRE · Market Reversals (MRE) Alert
+2.50%+$25.03
15 Sep 2026100.89 to 103.62
LiveClosed
SOL Long
MRE · Market Reversals (MRE) Alert
+1.76%+$17.60
12 Sep 2026101.43 to 103.42
LiveClosed
F Long
MTE · F MTE 1day
+3.37%+$33.74
3 Sep 202613.93 to 14.41
Adopted lateVoided
BAC Long
MTE · BAC MTE 1day
+1.74%+$17.36
3 Sep 202661.94 to 63.04
Adopted lateVoided
BAC Long
MTE · BAC MTE 1day
+1.03%+$10.25
1 Sep 202661.94 to 62.60
LiveClosed
XAG Long
MTE · XAG/USD MTE 4h · traded as SLV
-11.81%-$118.14
28 Aug 202669.01 to 60.883 (value)
LiveOpen
F Long
MTE · F MTE 1day
+1.44%+$14.36
22 Aug 202613.93 to 14.14
Adopted lateClosed
XAG Long
MTE · XAG/USD MTE 4h · traded as SLV
+8.93%+$89.32
18 Aug 202663.338 to 69.022
Adopted lateClosed
BK Long
MTE · BK MTE 1day
+2.43%+$24.29
5 Aug 2026158.74 to 162.66
Adopted lateClosed
F Short
MTE · F MTE 1day
-0.07%-$0.71
5 Aug 202614.13 to 14.13
Adopted lateClosed
XAG Long
MTE · XAG/USD MTE 4h · traded as SLV
+3.55%+$35.48
5 Aug 202662.047 to 64.274
Adopted lateClosed
CRM Short
MTE · CRM MTE 1day
-35.41%-$354.14
13 Jun 2026165.89 to 224.56 (value)
LiveOpen
CRM Short
MTE · CRM MTE 1day
+2.58%+$25.76
11 Jun 2026170.92 to 166.45
LiveClosed
BCH Long
MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h
-5.96%-$59.56
5 Jun 2026239.50 to 225.70
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
+8.88%+$88.78
5 Jun 2026188.35 to 205.15 (value)
LiveOpen
CRM Long
MTE · CRM MTE 1day
-1.02%-$10.16
4 Jun 2026190.61 to 188.75
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
+1.11%+$11.11
3 Jun 2026187.55 to 189.71
LiveClosed
CRM Long
MTE · CRM MTE 1day
-4.22%-$42.19
2 Jun 2026209.60 to 200.84
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
+1.81%+$18.07
30 May 2026182.46 to 185.83
LiveClosed
CRM Long
MTE · CRM MTE 1day
+8.39%+$83.88
29 May 2026176.17 to 191.02
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
+0.31%+$3.05
28 May 2026182.40 to 183.03
LiveClosed
0Y4G Long
AOE · AOE Outperformer
-0.04%-$0.40
27 May 202646.622 to 46.622
LiveClosed
0Y10 Long
AOE · AOE Outperformer
-0.04%-$0.40
27 May 2026146.82 to 146.82
LiveClosed
ROCK Long
Insider · Insider Alpha - Bosway William T (President and CEO)
+4.72%+$47.20
27 May 202637.438 to 39.22
LiveClosed
CRM Long
MTE · CRM MTE 1day
-0.92%-$9.17
27 May 2026179.08 to 177.51
LiveClosed
BCH Long
MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h
-0.95%-$9.51
26 May 2026346.00 to 343.40
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
-3.55%-$35.50
23 May 2026191.43 to 184.71
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
-0.21%-$2.07
21 May 2026191.33 to 191.01
LiveClosed
BCH Long
MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h
-0.09%-$0.92
20 May 2026370.00 to 370.40
LiveClosed
BCH Long
MTE · BCH/USD MTE 4h
+0.45%+$4.52
19 May 2026368.00 to 370.40
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
+0.54%+$5.36
19 May 2026196.12 to 197.25
LiveClosed
CVX Long
MTE · CVX MTE 1day
+3.82%+$38.18
17 May 2026183.99 to 191.09
Adopted lateNot counted
CRM Short
MTE · CRM MTE 1day
-3.48%-$34.81
16 May 2026173.51 to 179.48
LiveClosed
How this record is built
What is in it
Every row Trade Alpha has written since 25 Mar 2026: 148 signals. That includes 115 from strategies we have since removed, which Trade Alpha no longer shows. Backtest rows are never in it.
Live or adopted late
A signal is live when it was written within an hour of the time it shows. Some were written later, mostly when our reconciler adopted a trade the engine had missed. Those are marked adopted late. Their issue time is the time they were written, and the entry is re-priced at the first daily close after that, because nobody could have acted earlier. A late row written after its own exit is listed and not counted.
Voided and private
Voided rows are trades the engine never held, or duplicates closed by a cleanup job. Private rows were never shown on the public feed. Both are listed and not counted.
Sizing
$1,000 on every signal. Each group is an account sized to the most signals it held at once, times $1,000. That is the "needed up to" figure. Open signals are valued at the latest daily close.
Costs
Crypto spot: 0.1% a side. Hyperliquid perps: 0.05% a side, with funding left out because we do not store funding history (there were no perp signals in this period). Stocks and ETFs on Alpaca pay no commission, so we charge half the bid-ask spread a side, taken as half a cent a share or 0.02% of the price, whichever is more. Silver signals trade as SLV on Alpaca and use the stock model. Crypto shorts pay the spot rate, without borrow costs.
Benchmarks
The same starting balance held in Bitcoin, SPY or QQQ from the group's first signal to today, at daily closes, before costs. Our XAG/USD price feed stopped on 15 Sep 2026; after that we carry silver with SLV's daily moves.
Proof of timing
5 signals carry Discord message ids, and a Discord id encodes the moment Discord received the post. Since 7 Oct 2026 every new or changed row is also written to an append-only log every five minutes, each entry hashed together with the one before it, so a changed or deleted past entry breaks the chain. The log has 149 entries and the chain checks out. Latest hash f20f1bd791383ddd. Download the log.
Rules
Since 7 Oct 2026, Market Reversal (MRE) signals carry a published stop and target, shown with each row. Earlier rows show the levels they were posted with, where they had any.
Periods and currency
Figures run from each group's first counted signal to 8 Oct 2026, in US dollars, with no currency conversion. Returns are not annualised until the record is a year old. The ledger and its figures are real signals only. The In testing section is a paper test, shown next to each rule's backtest and labelled that way; it never enters the ledger.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Blockcircle provides market information and software tools. It does not provide personal financial advice. Trading involves risk, including loss of capital.