Recession riskUnited States
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Macroeconomic Risk Scorecard (MRS)
Live macroeconomic risk analysis powered by Federal Reserve (FRED) data. Monitors 50+ indicators including interest rates, inflation, yield curves, credit spreads, and central bank balance sheets to assess macro conditions for crypto and traditional markets.
Key Features
- 7 recession probability models with historical accuracy tracking
- 50+ macroeconomic indicators from FRED, ECB, and global central banks
- Multi-country analysis (US, EU, UK, Japan, China)
- Interest rate forecasting and yield curve analysis
- Credit stress monitoring (CDS spreads, high-yield spreads)
- Dollar index (DXY) and global liquidity tracking
- Interactive charts
Primary Data Sources
MRS ingests data directly from primary sources trusted by economists and central banks. Inflation series come from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index release, GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, yield-curve spreads from the FRED 10Y-2Y Treasury spread (T10Y2Y), and policy-rate expectations from the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar.
What is the Macroeconomic Risk Scorecard?
The MRS tracks key macroeconomic indicators that influence financial markets including interest rates, inflation data, yield curve inversions, credit spreads, and central bank policy. It produces a risk score to help traders assess macro conditions.
How does macro risk affect crypto markets?
Crypto markets are increasingly correlated with macro conditions. Tightening monetary policy, rising rates, and credit stress typically create headwinds for crypto, while loosening conditions and expanding liquidity tend to support prices.
What indicators does MRS track?
MRS monitors Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, CPI/inflation data, credit default swaps, dollar index (DXY), money supply metrics, and global central bank balance sheets.
Recession risk,modelled.
Seven independent recession probability models layered against fifty-plus macro indicators, pulled live from FRED, BLS, BEA, ECB. A single composite read on where the cycle stands.
Combined M7
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0-100 recession risk
Regime
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Business cycle phase
Models ≥ 60
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Elevated signals
Macro health
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Grade
M7 forecast
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6-period projection
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