Market analysis, product updates, and trading strategies from the Blockcircle team.
A six-timeframe momentum score reads one way in a clean trend and something completely different in a range. Here is how to tell when a low or flickering composite is telling you to stand aside.
Some knobs on a cloned strategy only change how the ride feels. Others re-select which trades exist, which means the backtest you liked stops describing the thing you are running.
Leadership rarely dies overnight. The old leader stalls while a challenger's RS climbs for weeks first. Here is how to read the slope and rank momentum so you rotate on the turn.
A Sharpe of 1.5 over a month and over five years are not the same claim. Here is the standard error math and a quick check for telling a real edge from a small-sample fluke.
A composite macro score tells you the cycle is decelerating but not why. A separate policy error component makes the cause attributable, and the hard part is keeping it from double counting the yield curve.
CAPM gives you a cost of equity for a Bitcoin treasury company, but the number swings wildly with your inputs. Here is how leverage inflates beta and where the estimate breaks.
The regime bars are separate gauges, not slices of one pie. Three of them read 75, 55 and 45 in the same capture, which is 175 points, and that arithmetic changes how you are meant to trade them.
Two assets that both tripled can still barely lower your risk together. The reason is correlation, and the two-asset math makes it obvious once you look at it.
A five-cent gap between Polymarket and Kalshi looks like free money until you price gas, withdrawal timing, USDC conversion, and weeks of locked capital. Here is the full stack.
The four dropdowns that build this screen, what each column is really telling you, and why the borrow half of the setup has to come from your broker. Plus what an open market purchase adds that an option exercise does not.
The price arc around a major exchange listing is fairly predictable, and so is where retail gets filled. A framework for sizing the entry and planning the exit before the supply hits.